To Do or Not to Do. What Would Have to Be True?
Thomas had one of the craziest ideas I had ever heard.
On the first day of each FastForward London cohort, we would ask each founder to introduce themselves and their idea. Thomas started by reminding us that we were facing a Climate Emergency. No argument there.
He went on to explain that we needed to reduce our dependence on animal protein from livestock and other carbon-intensive sources. His theory was that a lot of people were very reluctant to become vegetarians though, which resonated with me.
His idea was that we needed to find a climate-friendly source of animal protein--insects! He had designed a kit for growing mealworms at home so that people could adapt their recipes and switch.
My initial reaction was that I didn’t think this was a great idea, but I had the presence of my mind to keep quiet. Because I knew that this was just my opinion.
Everyone has opinions
One of the hardest things about building a business is that everybody has opinions about what you should and shouldn't do. Friends, family, coaches, and investors try to help by giving you advice on how to do things, even whether you should be building a business at all. But they are all just opinions. Informed ones maybe, but just opinions.
Founders can be the worst offenders themselves because building a business requires conviction. Considering the possibility that you are deluded does not help. The best founders do have the courage to consider this possibility and do the work of stress-testing their opinions. That's how they earn their secrets.
What Would Have to be True?
Lean Startup talks about identifying your biggest leaps of faith and testing them with experiments. But Roger Martin has a 7-Step approach which is more rigorous-- in my opinion, of course--and helps to skirt conflict more constructively.1
The method consists of focusing the debate on the essential conditions for a decision to make sense, instead of whether the decision itself is a good one.
Step One: Focus on choices
Don't waste time debating or analysing issues and your current situation. This isn't an abstract exercise, you are trying to decide what you are going to do.
Frame any debate around two mutually exclusive choices for action that might address your current challenges. This concentrates the debate and avoids superfluous analysis and debate about “the truth.”
The critical choices are usually around which market to target, product features, or marketing strategy. The most critical choice is whether to go on building the business you've imagined or move on to something else.
Step Two: Generate strategic possibilities
This is where startup becomes a creative craft. Come up with as many options for action as possible. But at least two, otherwise you are not making a choice. You must include the status quo as one of the possibilities. Because you must consider what needs to be true to go on with your current strategy.
Martin defines a possibility as “a happy story that describes how you might succeed”. This is where having a diverse group of people to bounce ideas around with, including outsiders, helps generate original options.
During this emergent stage, don't try and defend or analyse options. As long as they are plausible, they should make the cut.
Step Three: What are the essential conditions for success?
The next step is to specify what must be true for each possible choice to be brilliant. This does not mean deciding what is true, only what would have to be true. This distinction is crucial. We don’t want to get prematurely bogged down in defending or opposing choices.
This approach forces sceptics to state their criteria for accepting an option as opposed to merely arguing that it won’t work. It also forces them to articulate specifically what aspect of a choice makes them sceptical, as opposed to blanket opposition.
"In strategy, what counts is what would have to be true--not what is true"
But remember that the same scrutiny is applied to the current strategy.
You stick with this exercise until you can say “If all these conditions were true, would you make this choice?” and no one says no. If someone does say no, then the list of criteria is incomplete.
Step Four: What is in the way of choosing?
Now that you have a list of criteria, ask yourself which one is the least likely to be true. Rank the list of conditions by the most uncertain ones.
Step Five: Design the test
Once you know what needs to be true to make a choice, the next step is to figure out whether they are actually true or not. Do the research and/or design an experiment.
Martin recommends that whoever is most sceptical about a condition should take the lead in designing the test and carry it out. If they are convinced, everyone else will be as well.
Step Six: Do the test
As with Lean Startup, start with the biggest leap of faith. Test the condition that is least likely to be true. If it isn’t true, you don’t need to waste time and money on the others, and you can move on to a different choice.
Step Seven: Choose
If you’ve done the work outlined in the steps above is almost automatic. Just choose the option that has the least unverified critical conditions.
Wait, I thought they all had to be true? In an ideal scenario, yes. But in reality, you may still need to take a leap of faith. But it will be an educated gamble, made with eyes wide open. You will know exactly what you are betting on.
Why does this work?
In the early steps, this works because it liberates you to be creative and explore what you might do, instead of what you should do. In design-speak, it encourages divergent thinking.
In the middle of the process, it forces you to be rigorously impartial by asking “What would I have to believe?” instead of “What do I believe?”.
Finally, it fundamentally changes the nature of the conversation with your team and advisors. If you’re having an adversarial debate about what the right answer is, it’s going to be based on opinions. It’s much more constructive to have a collaborative exercise to identify what are the right questions. What do you actually need to know to make the right choice? This is how you earn your secrets.
What Happened to Thomas?
Thomas had the character to be open to the idea that he might be wrong, or ahead of his time, which unfortunately is the same thing when you’re building a startup. He carried out extensive customer interviews and found out that there wasn’t sufficient appetite for insects--yet.
But he didn’t give up, and The Bug Factory is thriving. Eighteen months after he started, he launched a line of mealworm growing pods, as he had intended. But he targeted pet owners instead at first and he has now expanded into industrial insect production for animal feed.
Join Us!
If you like the sound of this and you want to build a business that harnesses your curiosity, please consider joining us at ClimbWorks, the Unaccelerator for those who want to choose their own adventure.
