"A crisis is a terrible thing to waste"

I was doing a workshop with a group of small business owners and freelancers the other day (online, of course), when we got around to the question none of us can escape at the moment: how do we deal with this crisis? Everybody's revenue is already declining and some have even had all their bookings cancelled within the past week. We didn't come up with the answer, but we did develop the beginnings of a framework and two principles that seem useful:

1. Differentiate between what you can control and what you can't.

2. Play the long game

The first step is to take stock of the situation and how it's affecting you. We started with an old school tool: a SWOT analysis, but did it in reverse order. Start with threats and figure out how to deal with them. Because the first priority is living to fight another day.

What's coming at you, and what can you do about it?

What are the biggest threats that you are now facing? Well, there's the virus itself for a start. Apply the first principle above and stay the hell home to minimise the chances of getting it or passing it on to others. Do your bit to flatten the curve.

For most of us--regardless of size--the next big threat is probably precariousness of income. Whether it's because clients are cancelling or because the nature of what you do requires physical presence or travel. So take stock. What's your revenue pipeline look like now? What is definitely cancelled and what is definitely still there? Focus on what might be cancelled but doesn't have to be. Talk to your customers and find creative ways of helping them through this crisis.

The next thing to do is look at your burn rate. Some of my biggest expenses--commuting, holidays and eating out--have already been cut for me. What else can you reduce? But don't be stupid and shortsighted when looking at expenses. Play the long game.

If you're an employer, don't just get rid of people. If you've been doing your job right, it's taken you lots of effort to recruit the right people and build a team with the right skills and attitude. You are going to need them to get through this, and you're going to wish they were still there when we're all allowed out again.

So work creatively with them to make this work. If you can't pay them their full salary, try and pay them enough so they can get through this and ask them to let you delay the rest of their pay. Then commit to paying them back with bonus interest when the resurgence comes. In the UK, the government appears to be helping with this, even if it seems to be leaving freelancers and the self-employed in the lurch. So figure out how these programmes work.

As to other expenses, cut the fat, but don't cut the bone. Keep and take care of the tools that enable you to develop and deliver your products and services.

Rinse and repeat with any other threats. If it is possible to contain a threat or eliminate it, do so. Otherwise just accept it and mitigate it to the degree that you can.

What does the new normal need from you now?

The next priority is to see where the opportunities are in all of this. Lots of doors are closing but new doors are opening because of the shift in circumstances. What do people need help with? What are the new gaps that you can fill? What can you do online or in some other way which does not depend on physical proximity? For example, I got a new international coaching client online last week. I’ve been thinking of investigating that for ages, but it was always on the backburner. The quarantine strangely reduces—even eliminates—the distance between local and international.

“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”- Paul Romer

Even if you don't feel fully ready for these opportunities, keep a bias for action, and experiment. We are all making this up as we go along now. Which is liberating in so many ways, because people will be more tolerant of improvisation and iteration if they can see that you’re trying to improve the situation. So ship, and don’t let perfectionism get in the way.

How can we use this time to build on our strengths?

Then move on to strengths. This is a great time to level up by practising and developing the skills that differentiate yourself. Or learn new ones. Follow your curiosity--you have time now. Sharpen those tools. Work on all the important and creative development projects you’ve been procrastinating because you were “too busy.” This is another way of playing the long game.

What about weaknesses?

I haven’t altogether worked out what you should do about weaknesses. I do know you need to be honest about them and not fool yourself into complacency. Identify the ones that are potentially fatal and come up with a plan to sort those out. Either bring them up to “adequate” level or better yet, get somebody who’s brilliant in those areas to sort them out for you.

I tend to agree with the view that you shouldn’t spend a lot of time trying to get good at turning weaknesses into strengths. At best, you’ll level up to mediocre. If you focus on your strengths, you’ll be more motivated and you’ll be in a better position to pay others to cover your weaknesses for you.

Play the long game

Don’t believe the fools that are telling us we’re going to beat this in twelve weeks. This is no time for self-delusion. We need to be clinically realistic. But we also need to avoid ignorant panic and remain optimistic.

The consensus from the experts is that it’s probably going to last a year at least. It will come and go in waves. But most of us will slowly return to the world as we contract the virus, survive and gain immunity.

So let’s use this time to get ready for the re-emergence in a few months. And beyond that. Because much of what we learn now will stand us in good stead as we deal with the bigger but slower threats we face because of the climate emergency.

Winter is indeed coming. But what will you wish you had done with this time when Spring comes? Why not start today?

Please let me know what ideas you have.

Stay safe and stay home!

Paul